Two countries that used to be friends.
In 1953 the United States helped overthrow Iran's elected prime minister. In 1979 Iran returned the gesture by overthrowing the king the Americans had backed. Everything since flows from those two events.
Operation Ajax, 1953. The CIA and MI6 toppled Mohammad Mosaddegh after he nationalised Iran's oil. The Shah came back. The bargain was simple. Iran kept selling cheap oil to the West. The West kept the Shah in power.
The bargain ended in flames. By 1979 the Shah was gone. An exiled cleric named Khomeini had returned. A crowd had stormed the US embassy in Tehran. They held 52 American diplomats for 444 days.
A bomb that does not exist yet.
Iran's nuclear program is the spine of the conflict. Not because it has weapons. Because it could.
The deal that almost worked. In 2015 the US, Europe, Russia, and China struck the JCPOA with Tehran. Iran capped enrichment at 3.67 percent. Inspectors got broad access. Sanctions came off. For three years it held.
The deal that broke. In 2018 the United States walked out unilaterally. Sanctions snapped back. Iran responded by enriching faster. By 2025 it was producing uranium at 60 percent and the breakout time had shrunk from a year to weeks.
The strikes. In June 2025, US and Israeli aircraft hit hardened sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Iran retaliated against US bases in Qatar. A 12-day war. Then a ceasefire neither side trusts.
Breakout time
The time a state would need to enrich enough uranium for one bomb. Shorter is scarier.
For example.Pre-JCPOA: about 12 months. Under JCPOA: still about 12 months. Post-2018: shrinking. Post-2025 strikes: contested.
The 33-kilometre lever.
Look at the map. Iran sits beside one of the world's most important energy throats.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day in 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That equaled about a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. Most of it goes to Asia. The strait is wider than the headline number suggests, but the shipping lanes are narrow enough to make disruption frightening.
If that route becomes unsafe, the problem does not stay in the Gulf. It hits fuel prices, inflation, shipping, and politics in countries that have never heard of Bandar Abbas.
War without a return address.
Iran fights almost everyone through someone else. The architecture has a name in Tehran. The Axis of Resistance.
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas in Gaza. The Houthis in Yemen. Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. All armed, trained, or paid by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. All deniable. All useful.
The United States runs the other side of the same logic. Israel as the spear. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies as the wallet. The Fifth Fleet as the hammer.
Solid lines: direct support and rivalry. Dashed lines: proxy or sponsorship.
Forty-six years on one rail.
- 1953CoupOperation Ajax
CIA and MI6 overthrow Mosaddegh after he nationalises Iranian oil. The Shah returns. Trust dies young.
- 1979RevolutionIslamic Revolution
The Shah falls. Khomeini returns. Students seize the US embassy in Tehran. 444-day hostage crisis follows.
- 1980-88WarIran–Iraq War
The US tilts toward Saddam. A million Iranians die. Tehran does not forget.
- 2002Speech"Axis of evil"
Bush names Iran in his State of the Union. Iran's nuclear program goes from rumor to file.
- 2015DealJCPOA signed
Iran caps enrichment at 3.67%. UN, IAEA inspectors get access. Sanctions ease. Three good years.
- 2018WithdrawalUS walks out
Trump pulls out unilaterally. "Maximum pressure" begins. Iran starts spinning faster centrifuges.
- 2020StrikeSoleimani killed
A US drone strike in Baghdad kills the IRGC commander running the proxy network.
- 2024DirectIran–Israel goes public
After two decades of shadow war, Iran and Israel exchange direct strikes for the first time.
- Jun 2025WarThe 12-day war
US and Israel strike Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan. Iran retaliates against Al Udeid in Qatar. Ceasefire follows.
- Apr 2026TalksPakistan mediates
A new round of talks opens in Islamabad. Sticking points: enrichment, sanctions, proxies, prisoners.
Why everyone is partly right.
Switch the lens. The same forty-six years tell different stories. None is the whole truth. All are useful.
Why are the United States and Iran enemies?
“Two states maximizing security in a zero-sum neighborhood.”
Iran wants to be the regional power between the Mediterranean and the Hindu Kush. The United States wants to keep any one country from dominating the Gulf. Realists predict more pressure, more proxies, and a cold peace at best.
“A failure of multilateralism — and the slow path back.”
The 2015 JCPOA proved cooperation was possible. The 2018 withdrawal proved how fragile institutions are without domestic political support. Liberals see the Islamabad talks as the ugly path back to a deal.
example. When the JCPOA held, Iranian enrichment fell and inspectors had access. The mechanism worked.
“Two stories about each other that make compromise look like betrayal.”
Iran tells itself a story in which the US is the great Satan that has been trying to topple it since 1953. The US tells itself a story in which Iran is a revolutionary regime that took American hostages and never apologised. Both stories are emotionally true.
Have you got it?
What does the Strait of Hormuz mainly give Iran?
Hormuz is leverage. The threat of disruption alone moves oil prices. Iran does not have to close it to use it. That is why every administration in Tehran for forty-five years has treated it as the country's most important diplomatic weapon.
Sources & fact checks
Five things you now understand
- 01
The clock starts in 1953
The Iran–US conflict starts with a coup, not a revolution. Tehran has not forgotten.
- 02
JCPOA proved cooperation works
And the 2018 withdrawal proved how fast a deal can break when one side's domestic politics turn.
- 03
Both sides fight through others
Iran through proxies. The US through allies. Same logic, opposite jerseys.
- 04
Hormuz is leverage even when it is open
Closing it is a threat. The threat alone moves global oil prices.
- 05
No ambassador since 1979
Forty-six years of state-to-state communication run through messages passed through Switzerland and Oman.